Talarico Holds Narrow Lead over Paxton in Latest Texas Senate Poll

The latest poll from Texas Southern University shows Democrat James Talarico holding onto a narrow one-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race to become Texas’ next senator.

Talarico holds lead in U.S. Senate race

Talarico holds a 47% to 46% lead over Paxton with 3% of voters supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 4% remaining undecided with 41 days until election day.

The Texas Southern poll asked 1,800 likely voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 19, and had a margin of error of +/- 2.31%.

Both candidates had a net negative unfavorability rating among those surveyed. 

Talarico was viewed favorably by 47% of voters and unfavorably by 50%, while Paxton was viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 55%. The remaining 3% and 2%, respectively, said they did not know enough about the candidate to have an opinion of them.

Some Republicans say they’ll vote for Talarico

While 99% of Democrats said they would vote for Talarico, just 84% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton.

Among the other Republicans, 7% said they would vote for Talarico, 4% for Brown and 5% were undecided.

Who leads in other statewide Texas races?

The poll also asked about other statewide races, including governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

• In the Texas governor’s race, Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%, with 2% planning to support Libertarian Pat Dixon.
• Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (47%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (41%) by six percentage points in his quest for reelection, with 2% supporting Libertarian Anthony Cristo, 1% supporting Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick and 9% undecided.
• The Texas Attorney General race sees Republican Mayes Middleton with a 5-point lead over Democrat Nathan Johnson, 47% to 42%, with 2% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 9% undecided.
• Republican Don Huffines (47%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (38%) by eight points in the race for state Comptroller. Two percent of voters said they would support Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza, 1% would support the Green Party’s Shela Faizi and 11% remain undecided.
• In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, Republican Dawn Buckingham (47%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (39%) by 8 points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Neill Snider and 12% undecided.
• Republican Nate Sheets (45%) leads Democrat Clayton Tucker (39%) by 6 points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Austin Kelly and 14% undecided in the race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner.
• The race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, Republican Bo French (44%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (42%) by 2 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 11% undecided.